Japan’s Population Decline Hits Record Low in 2025 Census

Japan’s 2025 national census revealed that the country’s total population fell to 123,049,524, a decrease of 3,096,575 people (2.5%) compared to five years earlier. This marks the largest decline in census history and highlights the urgency of adapting infrastructure, administration, and the economy to a shrinking society.

Key Findings

• Global ranking: Japan slipped from 11th to 12th in world population size, overtaken by Ethiopia according to UN estimates.
• Regional trends: Only Tokyo and Okinawa recorded population growth. All other 45 prefectures declined.
• Historic firsts: Chiba and Saitama saw decreases for the first time since census records began in 1920. Kanagawa and Aichi posted their first postwar declines.
• Major cities: Of Japan’s 20 designated cities, 13—including Yokohama and Hiroshima—registered population losses.
• Household size: Average household size dropped to 2.15 persons, the lowest since records began in 1970. Tokyo had the smallest households at 1.88, while Yamagata had the largest at 2.49.
• Foreign residents: The number of foreign nationals reached 3,213,212 (2.6%), up from 2.2% in 2020, reflecting growing reliance on international workers.

Urban Exodus and Regional Impact

The decline is especially visible in prefectural capitals. Out of 47, 40 cities lost residents, with only Sendai and Fukuoka showing growth. Large cities are losing their role as “population dams,” unable to prevent outflow to Tokyo and other metropolitan areas.

In Hiroshima, the population fell by 2.4% (28,331 people) to 1,172,423. The prefecture has suffered the worst net outflow nationwide for five consecutive years, with 80% of departures among people aged 10–30. University graduates increasingly choose Tokyo over local employment, weakening Hiroshima’s regional pull.

Expert Insights

Former Internal Affairs Minister Hiroya Masuda warns:

“Japan has entered a phase where the population decreases by one million annually. By the 2030 census, the total will likely fall into the 110 million range. Both rural and urban areas must prepare for across‑the‑board decline.”

Masuda emphasizes the need for “smart shrinkage” in public services. For example, sparsely populated areas may replace centralized sewage systems with individual purification tanks to reduce costs.

Future Challenges

Even with greater participation from women and seniors in the workforce, Japan faces inevitable labor shortages. To sustain the economy, foreign workers will be essential, making policies for integration and coexistence increasingly critical.
(Source: Nikkei, May 29, 2026)

Global University in Japan view:

The recent yen depreciation has become a tailwind for attracting international students to Japan. As of May 1, 2025, the number of foreign students reached 408,069, a 21% increase year‑on‑year, marking the highest level since comparable records began in 2011.

Japan has already achieved the government’s target of 400,000 international students by 2033, reaching the milestone eight years ahead of schedule.

With Japan’s population continuing to shrink, the country’s economic future depends on productivity growth and coexistence with foreign talent. International graduates who complete their studies at Japanese universities and then choose to work in Japan will become increasingly valuable contributors to the nation’s workforce and society.